JaneB

Brentford 0 Chelsea 1

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33 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

When in fact, it is far from real and doesn't take include any context. 

And who and how someone decides what an expected goal is, is beyond me. 

Trying to look at our matches objectively. ....we defintiely deserved to beat Palace, Arsenal, Spurs, Southampton, and we definitely deserved a point at Liverpool. That's 13 points

I don't think on balance we deserved zero points from City, Brentford and Villa. 

Of course it is hypothetical.  But it is interesting how it aligns very closely with what you, boratsbrother and I have said.  And yet it is certainly more independent and free from favouritism than us.  And I think the similarities with Conte are curious.

XG does not tell us why Conte and TT do so much better than chances suggest, but it does confirm the gap.
Interestingly one of the worst under-performing teams on xg and xga was Lampards, including the first half of 20/21.  
Which leads to the rather surprising idea that our finishing improved at the start of this year.image.png.b01c8dc6cce0214b576b45d5e2a831e4.png 

  

 

Edited by Droy was my hero

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54 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

When in fact, it is far from real and doesn't take include any context. 

And who and how someone decides what an expected goal is, is beyond me. 

Trying to look at our matches objectively. ....we defintiely deserved to beat Palace, Arsenal, Spurs, Southampton, and we definitely deserved a point at Liverpool. That's 13 points

I don't think on balance we deserved zero points from City, Brentford and Villa. 

I thought we were a bit fortunate with the sending off against Southampton, which came at a time when they were the better team. Very fortunate to even get a point against Brentford. City were well desrved winners. Villa was just a case of us taking our chances and them missing theirs. Not really bad luck like Brentford had.

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paulw66   
47 minutes ago, Droy was my hero said:

Of course it is hypothetical.  But it is interesting how it aligns very closely with what you, boratsbrother and I have said.  And yet it is certainly more independent and free from favouritism than us.  And I think the similarities with Conte are curious.

XG does not tell us why Conte and TT do so much better than chances suggest, but it does confirm the gap.
Interestingly one of the worst under-performing teams on xg and xga was Lampards, including the first half of 20/21.  
Which leads to the rather surprising idea that our finishing improved at the start of this year.image.png.b01c8dc6cce0214b576b45d5e2a831e4.png 

  

 

Liverpool game is a classic example where it doesn't reflect the truth. They accumulated XGs of 2.08 by having a load of shots from 20-25 yards. Second half they had no real chances at all. I expect they accumulated over 1 XG for the combination of the shot that hit the bar, then the subsequent penalty after the melee........ 2 separate chances, but for all intents and purposes, the same incident. 

11 minutes ago, boratsbrother said:

I thought we were a bit fortunate with the sending off against Southampton, which came at a time when they were the better team. Very fortunate to even get a point against Brentford. City were well desrved winners. Villa was just a case of us taking our chances and them missing theirs. Not really bad luck like Brentford had.

Fortunate?

VAR screwed us out of a second goal. 2-0 at HT, game over. 

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chara   

Chelsea had a back three of young players...even AC... and I am a great believer in making your own luck...our keeper did his job as we have come to almost take for granted..long may that continue....I wrote earlier of the myth created with Brentford as the plucky underdogs yadda yadda....completely insulting to Brentford..... great start for a newly promoted club and I truly wish them well,,,,a tough away game with a weakened...for whatever reasons...side ..... why do we as Chelsea fans take a strange delight in castigating our team for winning games?....it's not a video game but real nitty gritty stuff.

I think many sides will struggle at the new Brentford ground and although I feel they may well be the "new" Bournemouth and eventually slip back I think it will be a season or three with other clubs struggling more.

 

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1 hour ago, paulw66 said:

Liverpool game is a classic example where it doesn't reflect the truth. They accumulated XGs of 2.08 by having a load of shots from 20-25 yards. Second half they had no real chances at all. I expect they accumulated over 1 XG for the combination of the shot that hit the bar, then the subsequent penalty after the melee........ 2 separate chances, but for all intents and purposes, the same incident. 

Well you can see how the chances add up chance by chance if you like.  https://understat.com/match/16402
Either hold mouse over each chance or use the Timing Chart tab.
The penalty gets an xg of 0.76 which I guess is the default for all penalties.  But there are still plenty of other chances not taken in there.  Including 4 chances from inside the 6 yard box - we had none.

The shots outside the box don't actually amount to much for Liverpool.  0.10 total for the 6 shots well outside the box and another 0.11 total for the two in the circle segment drawn around the pen spot.

image.thumb.png.5e0fd9e2036a30b5b0462f8fb5e3bc66.png

To be quite honest 2.08-0.57 coincides closely with my recall of the game.

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35 minutes ago, Droy was my hero said:

Well you can see how the chances add up chance by chance if you like.  https://understat.com/match/16402
Either hold mouse over each chance or use the Timing Chart tab.
The penalty gets an xg of 0.76 which I guess is the default for all penalties.  But there are still plenty of other chances not taken in there.  Including 4 chances from inside the 6 yard box - we had none.

The shots outside the box don't actually amount to much for Liverpool.  0.10 total for the 6 shots well outside the box and another 0.11 total for the two in the circle segment drawn around the pen spot.

image.thumb.png.5e0fd9e2036a30b5b0462f8fb5e3bc66.png

To be quite honest 2.08-0.57 coincides closely with my recall of the game.


I see you have taken a new path. To add to the "I will just argue and argue and repeat myself ad nauseam" strategy, I see you've added the "if a couple of small graphics don't work, I'll post a really big one! Then they'll just have to agree with me!" formula.

Bravo!

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41 minutes ago, Bob Singleton said:

I see you have taken a new path. To add to the "I will just argue and argue and repeat myself ad nauseam" strategy, I see you've added the "if a couple of small graphics don't work, I'll post a really big one! Then they'll just have to agree with me!" formula.

This is a bit odd - because the theme of my last few posts is that everyone seems to be making the same point and agreeing with each other.  Fortunately we have Bob to provide some grit to the oyster.

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3 hours ago, boratsbrother said:

I thought we were a bit fortunate with the sending off against Southampton, which came at a time when they were the better team. Very fortunate to even get a point against Brentford. City were well desrved winners. Villa was just a case of us taking our chances and them missing theirs. Not really bad luck like Brentford had.

Don't understand this. Brentford didn't attack until the 75th minute and went hell-for-leather with nothing to lose. Would they have carried on piling forward if they got a goal and did have something to lose? Seems unlikely to me.

They weren't unfortunate Mendy saved everything they got on target. 

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chara   
25 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

Don't understand this. Brentford didn't attack until the 75th minute and went hell-for-leather with nothing to lose. Would they have carried on piling forward if they got a goal and did have something to lose? Seems unlikely to me.

They weren't unfortunate Mendy saved everything they got on target. 

Up until then I think the shots on either goal were shown as one each (as I recall but may be wrong but not by much!) and the hail mary finish is what is remembered and as you say Mendy saved everything...but that is what he is there for...that's not "luck". In no way am I damning Mendy with faint praise...I love the guy....he goes in where it hurts...always. in some ways I have a stronger keeper affection for him than PC...... I can relate to him in many ways but of course many many levels down.

I have sneaky feeling TT will play Kepa tomorrow....as good a game as any to assess his return to a semblance of a good keeper..

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