JaneB

Chelsea 7 Norwich City 0

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7 minutes ago, CarefreeMuratcan said:

There is a lot of context that xG doesn't take into account, it would be unfeasible for it to of course. 

Yes.  I think the biggest difference between how fans feel post match and xg is penalties.  A dubious pen from a dodgy ref counts as 0.76 or there abouts.  2 decent shouts count as 0.

But certainly it gives an objective reflection of the game, which mostly is fair.  Certainly a better judge than "IMO" or shots on target.

Edited by Droy was my hero

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3 hours ago, Blue Rod said:

250, 259, 25,000... it makes no difference.

I manage a bigger team than you do. If I ever thought that any of my staff is motivated by public criticism, it would be time for me to move on from that post. What CHO makes of it is one thing, how some members of the football public might understand it is a different matter. Every football manager or a person of responsibility in football must be aware of what happens outside their little bubble.

Are you really suggesting that Thomas Tuchel arrived at Cobham on his first day and immediately identified CHO as the one player who needs public criticism? Because he has been at it pretty much from day one. 

I mean, I suggested no such thing but I can see why you would need to suggest I did to sustain your argument. I do remember, though, that Tuchel immediately put Hudson-Odoi in his team.

I'd imagine none of your team are Premier League footballers, a career in which public criticism is commonplace, even unavoidable. Very few of us would be in roles where it would be normal to talk about people we manage in public at all. So you're missing the point, which is about what motivates people, and I expect on purpose.

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Chrisb   
3 hours ago, paulw66 said:

. What is the job of linesman at a penalty when he comes and stands near the goal? The technology tells the ref if the ball went in, so what are they doing? if they are there to check that the GK is on his line, this one failed. What is his job? Honestly?

I’ve often wondered the same and like you I cannot understand what they are supposed to be doing/checking. I’ve never seen one do anything even if an infringement has occurred.

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Blue Rod   
35 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

I mean, I suggested no such thing but I can see why you would need to suggest I did to sustain your argument. I do remember, though, that Tuchel immediately put Hudson-Odoi in his team.

I'd imagine none of your team are Premier League footballers, a career in which public criticism is commonplace, even unavoidable. Very few of us would be in roles where it would be normal to talk about people we manage in public at all. So you're missing the point, which is about what motivates people, and I expect on purpose.

But you're still trying to make the point that somehow, CHO may be motivated by public criticism, whereas the other Chelsea players are not, according to TT's records with them. I see no reason why that may be the case. I do see a lot of harm that can be done by it, however, a lot of it.

I thought that the idea that footballers and sportsmen in general are a different species of human being was banished a long time ago. 

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paulw66   
9 minutes ago, Blue Rod said:

 

I thought that the idea that footballers and sportsmen in general are a different species of human being was banished a long time ago. 

That's not the point being made. 

You can't compare an office environment (for example) with football. How many times are you giving press conferences with journalists asking about your employees performance?

TT sees his players every day in training (we don't). Perhaps, (and I don't know) CHO isn't pulling his weight. Perhaps on the field, he hasn't been adhering to the tactical instructions being given (we don't know as we aren't privy to them). There could be plenty of reasons why TT calls him out (over others).........perhaps the fact he scored only his 4th PL goal on Saturday almost 4 years after making his debut isn't good enough?

Anyway, he doesn't seem too unhappy:

https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news/2021/10/25/hudson-odoi-on-fighting-for-his-chance-and-tuchel-s-instructions

Edited by paulw66

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Blue Rod   
2 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

That's not the point being made. 

You can't compare an office environment (for example) with football. How many times are you giving press conferences with journalists asking about your employees performance?

TT sees his players every day in training (we don't). Perhaps, (and I don't know) CHO isn't pulling his weight. Perhaps on the field, he hasn't been adhering to the tactical instructions being given (we don't know as we aren't privy to them). There could be plenty of reasons why TT calls him out (over others).........perhaps the fact he scored only his 4th PL goal on Saturday almost 3 years after making his debut isn't good enough?

Anyway, he doesn't seem too unhappy:

https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news/2021/10/25/hudson-odoi-on-fighting-for-his-chance-and-tuchel-s-instructions

So why doesn't he talk to him in training like he does to the other players, and like most managers do to their players. Why does it have to be in public before and after every performance? 

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7 minutes ago, Blue Rod said:

But you're still trying to make the point that somehow, CHO may be motivated by public criticism, whereas the other Chelsea players are not, according to TT's records with them. I see no reason why that may be the case. I do see a lot of harm that can be done by it, however, a lot of it.

I thought that the idea that footballers and sportsmen in general are a different species of human being was banished a long time ago. 

I would have said choosing the right mixture of criticism and protection is universally acknowledged in football as a necessary management mechanism.  And that TT does it far less than most.  You seem to have bought into the CHO fanboy pov that abounds everywhere including the mainstream media.  
It is one thing to have the minority view that CHO has deserved more time on the pitch than Havertz or Werner, quite another to expect people to follow the logic through to TT being a bad manager.  

6 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

It is not just TT, this is the club PR approach - the boy is doing OK, still young, will get chances, all is fine.  Everyone buys into it at the club.  CHO included

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paulw66   
5 minutes ago, Blue Rod said:

So why doesn't he talk to him in training like he does to the other players, and like most managers do to their players. Why does it have to be in public before and after every performance? 

Maybe he doesn't / hasn't responded to what has been said privately

Moreover, TT gets asked about CHO every time he plays, so invariably, he answers the question. 

Edit - I have never seen TT start a conversation about CHO. It is always in response to a question. 

Edited by paulw66

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SabCFC   

I think what you guys are referring to as flaws to xG has already been fixed by a more advanced metric: post-shot xG. Often used to evaluate GKs more correctly.  

PSxG takes into consideration quality of the shots, whether they’re on target or not, whether they’re fluffed or clean, whether they’re at the keeper or in the corner etc.  That’s where things get more interesting.

Our finishing has been VERY good this season.  From the 2.9 xG against Norwich, the PSxG was of 5xG On Target!    

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This is the story of our season, we are running hot undoubtedly and riding our luck in some games (Liverpool at 10 excusable, Brentford, Villa).  But all these games have particular circumstances that make them outliers to me personally: Liverpool down to 10 for 45 minutes, the Brentford lineup that will probably never happen again (fingers crossed), Saul starting a PL game (or one of Jorginho/Kanté not starting).  We fairly lost to City, and the other results we’ve all deservedly won IMO.

The other interesting thing: In the analytics world, Tuchel is famous for extracting more xG and goals out of less shots. He doesn't want to spam shots, instead he'd prefer higher quality shots (famously when he took Dortmund post Klopp, they took less shots but better shots).

Last season, our shot selection was pretty bad, leading to that huge xG performance that's been recurrent in the last 4 years.

This is our shot map this season, the closer to the goal, the better obviously. 

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Our xG is 14, we scored 22. That is an unsustainable overperformance. However, our PSxG is pretty good in many games. 

Defensively, it's even crazier. 

FCePsjiXoA0uXkF.thumb.jpeg.2988a5d8e1f0906abd7135ac464de666.jpeg

What's clear is we're "forcing" a lot of bad shots against us. Some will argue luck, I personally think our defensive organization and quality is simply the best in Europe. Even when we're on the backfoot and totally dominated, we don't let a lot of very good/big chances. That's down to the quality of the CBs/WBs/CMs - it's no surprise we've let a lot of chances when there was no Silva, no Rudiger, no Jorginho or even James in some games. No disrespect to the other guys, they'll be useful, but Silva/Rudiger are Top 10 CBs in the world. Think of the Spurs first half, not great, but even with all that pressure from Spurs, Rudiger and Silva didn't let them have anything, and they have crazy good chance creators/finishers with Son & Kane.

We've rotated and used a lot of players. The most used number of starters of any teams (22 or 23), I think that contributed to the inconsistency, but it will pay off as a lot of our guys have played tons of football post-lockdown (Mount, Werner and Lukaku have rarely been injured in their careers and picked up knocks). I think by November Tuchel will go back to a settled 13-14 set of (fresh, not overplayed) players to get more consistent performances (so more like that 1.2xGF v 0.3xGA type scenario games).

At the moment, I think we're a team that can win most games 2-0 or 3-1, and that's pretty good even if unspectacular. The only issue is that City and Liverpool are very, very good, like historically good. It will be hard to keep up with those sides; but you can't control how good your rivals are, and you can't control the fact they have two of the best managers in the history of the game. What can be controlled is the extent to which we can compete, and maybe capitalize if they get tired and hit a rough patch (likely with Liverpool, less with City though).

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Blue Rod   
1 hour ago, paulw66 said:

Maybe he doesn't / hasn't responded to what has been said privately

There you have it; the answer. CHO doesn't work hard, doesn't do as he is told, doesn't listen. He must be reminded through the media. 

I'll tell you what is going on here. It's all about boosting TT's profile. If CHO becomes the player we all thought he was destined to become, Thomas Tuchel can claim credit for his hard work of training him in public. If he falls apart or simply decides he's had enough, Thomas Tuchel and your ilk can say, I told you. 

The other side of this cheap game is that Thomas Tuchel took over a Frank Lampard team and bettered it. But Lampard, for all his flaws will be seen as the one who was brave enoigh (and/or brazen) to take that risk and properly bring  our top trainees into the first team, and has been rightly getting the credit for it.

Thomas Tuchel wants some of that credit. He wants to be seen as a manager who can do more than win matches with someone's team, especially as some still talk of his spell as PSG as mini failure. He wants to be seen someone who develops young players. He has created Project CHO purely for his own ego. This is why this is must be played out in public.  

There are players underperforming well below CHO in the team right now. So why pick CHO? The answer is simple;  CHO is a kind of low lying fruit for improvement. CHO could have chosen either of the German players, but that would either fail or not look like a big enough improvement. 

I'm astonished how people just bend backwards to rationalise, justify, defend anything without asking the simple of 'why?'

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