JaneB

Chelsea 7 Norwich City 0

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Jasonb   

We are doing well though seems the striker situation is not settled.

Without a recognised striker we excelled against lowly Norwich if we excel again in our next PL meeting that might question our future best 11.

 

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11 hours ago, SabCFC said:

Last season we scored around 10 goals less than our xG, it was a statistical anomaly.

I don't believe in anomalies as big as that, or at least they are interesting and point to something, that needs looking at.  Just like the 23 goal excess goals we got in 16/17 was critical to understand that season. Or the remarkable 19/20 season where Xg suggests the table should have finished
City                    86.76 xPTS     ( 81 actual)
Liverpoool        74.28 xPTS      (99)
Chelsea            73.49 xPTS      (66)


The whole 10 goal deficit was under TT (while the poor Lampard record on goals conceded was reversed).  
Something definitely happened.  I suspect it is simple - TT got the team to concentrate on patterns of play.  Defence improved, chances created improved, finishing suffered.  (Or some will say Werner happened).

 

11 hours ago, SabCFC said:

Our shots from the sides I think have been above average with the likes of Alonso, Chilwell, James either scoring or forcing good saves, they do seem to be underestimated by the models (0.07xG/shot) - James has scored 2 in similar fashion, Chilwell 2 as well, and Alonso I can remember once or twice almost going in (And a PSG fan who's a friend of mine had noted to me that Juan Bernat, LB, scored a lot of goals for PSG inside the box similar to Chilwell, especially in systems where the FBs were pushed up - he was lamenting that Pochettino has two great attacking fullbacks in Mendes and Hakimi who are under-utilised compared to how PSG used to play under TT).

 

Yes I agree.  The TT in PSG story rings true.

11 hours ago, SabCFC said:

In our case, we've been famously wasteful, or don't have that Bruno type of difference maker, so it's certainly intriguing that we've kind of solved that issue. It could be just luck, and we will certainly not score 7 out of 2.9 xG maybe ever again.

Oh I think we will.  I think when a small team gets overwhelmed against a big team goals just fly in.  Sendings off have an effect too.  I don't think you can expect xG to work under that kind of unusual conditions where PL ultra competitiveness just disappears.

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12 hours ago, SabCFC said:

BTW the data for StatBomb is from https://fbref.com/en/ it's free to use and probably the most detailed database that's open sourced. I tend to find Understat xG model to be a little inflated.

Oh dear.  I feel like I have just started a diet and someone has bought me a big box of chocolates.
I liked the open play shots visual too.

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asvaberg   
25 minutes ago, Droy was my hero said:

Oh dear.  I feel like I have just started a diet and someone has bought me a big box of chocolates.
I liked the open play shots visual too.

Excellent database.

The only thing I don't like is seeing our rivals in North London with their massive attendance vs. ours :)

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41 minutes ago, asvaberg said:

Excellent database.

The only thing I don't like is seeing our rivals in North London with their massive attendance vs. ours :)

Can console ourselves with their European attendance this season :happy:

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SabCFC   
4 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

I don't believe in anomalies as big as that, or at least they are interesting and point to something, that needs looking at.  Just like the 23 goal excess goals we got in 16/17 was critical to understand that season. Or the remarkable 19/20 season where Xg suggests the table should have finished
City                    86.76 xPTS     ( 81 actual)
Liverpoool        74.28 xPTS      (99)
Chelsea            73.49 xPTS      (66)


The whole 10 goal deficit was under TT (while the poor Lampard record on goals conceded was reversed).  
Something definitely happened.  I suspect it is simple - TT got the team to concentrate on patterns of play.  Defence improved, chances created improved, finishing suffered.  (Or some will say Werner happened).

 

Yes I agree.  The TT in PSG story rings true.

Oh I think we will.  I think when a small team gets overwhelmed against a big team goals just fly in.  Sendings off have an effect too.  I don't think you can expect xG to work under that kind of unusual conditions where PL ultra competitiveness just disappears.

I still remember Tuchel's first post-game reaction after Wolves (which got mocked by the UK media for being too nerdy), he pointed out he was very happy with the performance as we had a lot of high ball recoveries and tons of counterpressing. One of the ways in which Tuchel helped the team to be so solid defensively was through the press: of higher intensity and coordination. 

chels-pressures-2.png.0417ec655657952cb10aa4721e97392d.png

At some point, only Leeds were pressing more. We slowed down by the end of the season and the games every 3 days with late stage Cup and CL games in the middle of a top 4 dog fight.

To me that energy spent to outwork opponents surely impacts finishing. I believe TT himself said we can't be too harsh on the attackers lacking "precision" when they do so much work off the ball. Fatigue impacts technique - the best finishers in the world don't run around pressing constantly, even Salah is usually the one in the Liverpool system who does less than the rest. 

This season, we press a little less, maybe because of Lukaku or because of the late preseason for some players, but it does feel intentional, we're more on City's pace of pressing than Liverpool and Leeds. I think this benefits our finishing to some extent with the mental and physical freshness we can keep.

The Conte season is interesting. In both his Inter seasons, they've outperformed xG as well: +10G when they won the title, +7G the season before that. The +20G at Chelsea could be a combination of both the Conte system and the quality of the Chelsea squad (in particular Costa, Hazard and Pedro are remarkable finishers).

For Inter, Hakimi the RWB had 7G+8A which is incredible, Perisic LWB had 4G+4A, Darmian (yes the Utd Darmian) 3G+3A, D'Ambrosio 3G, Ashley Young (who looked so bad against us in the Carabao Cup!!) 1G+4A.

The season before: Young had 4G+4A, D'Ambrosio 4G, Candreva 5G+7A, Moses 3A. These are crazy numbers, cause very, very few of these guys are actually great attackers, and they've all pretty much outperformed their xG. Of course, we saw a similar story with Alonso and Moses during the first Conte season with their top production.

The other team famous for their super attacking wingbacks are Atalanta, they score +8G compared to their xG in 20/21 and +11.8xG in 19/20. Gosens, Castagne, Hateboer, Maehle and now our very own Zappacosta thriving with goals and assists.  

 

So could be a design of the system - a front 5 especially against back 4 or a disorganised back 5. To quote Pep, the system is wiiiiide while keeping the distances between players short.  

 

Something that's noticeable when the wingbacks score: it's often through a switch of play from a side to another that leave them completely unmarked inside the box, think Chilwell and James against Norwich but also Chilwell against Southampton and James against Arsenal - they had all the time in the world to get a really good shot. So while a winger/attacker would be tightly marked when taking a shot inside the box, the wingbacks have way more time and space to prepare their shot.  

That is more observational and speculative obviously.

Edited by SabCFC

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2 hours ago, SabCFC said:

To me that energy spent to outwork opponents surely impacts finishing. I believe TT himself said we can't be too harsh on the attackers lacking "precision" when they do so much work off the ball. Fatigue impacts technique - the best finishers in the world don't run around pressing constantly, 

That makes a lot of sense to me.

 

2 hours ago, SabCFC said:

The Conte season is interesting. In both his Inter seasons, they've outperformed xG as well: +10G when they won the title, +7G the season before that. The +20G at Chelsea could be a combination of both the Conte system and the quality of the Chelsea squad (in particular Costa, Hazard and Pedro are remarkable finishers).

For Inter, Hakimi the RWB had 7G+8A which is incredible, Perisic LWB had 4G+4A, Darmian (yes the Utd Darmian) 3G+3A, D'Ambrosio 3G, Ashley Young (who looked so bad against us in the Carabao Cup!!) 1G+4A.

The season before: Young had 4G+4A, D'Ambrosio 4G, Candreva 5G+7A, Moses 3A. These are crazy numbers, cause very, very few of these guys are actually great attackers, and they've all pretty much outperformed their xG. Of course, we saw a similar story with Alonso and Moses during the first Conte season with their top production.

So yes, there is something in this WB approach that xG doesn't recognise.  Moses in particular has always been an extremely ordinary player under anyone but Conte.

 

2 hours ago, SabCFC said:

So could be a design of the system - a front 5 especially against back 4 or a disorganised back 5. To quote Pep, the system is wiiiiide while keeping the distances between players short.  

This is Steve Holland talking about Wing Backs at Chelsea in 16/17.  Very good.  Basically the Conte way of getting 5 players attacking at a time, he could equally be talking about TT.

 

2 hours ago, SabCFC said:

Something that's noticeable when the wingbacks score: it's often through a switch of play from a side to another that leave them completely unmarked inside the box, think Chilwell and James against Norwich but also Chilwell against Southampton and James against Arsenal - they had all the time in the world to get a really good shot. So while a winger/attacker would be tightly marked when taking a shot inside the box, the wingbacks have way more time and space to prepare their shot.  

That is more observational and speculative obviously.

But there is an old tactical understanding that if you dominate the game, win all your 50/50s then the opponents will narrow and the reward will be out wide.  In the old days that meant playing 9 vs 10 and having some young kid standing out wide on his own (or Pat Nevin).  I remember JM using some really young players like that.
The TT way is having 8^ play 10 and having both WBs as free men out wide.

 

Well 9 vs 10 if you count both Kante twins.

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