Sleeping Dave

Members_2012
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Everything posted by Sleeping Dave

  1. Transfer Talk Topic

    Is our tea lady also a football professional then? Even if we do hire outside experts, the validity of any modelling is extremely subjective. We are not trading financial instruments with clear pay-off structures. What I'm trying to say is this; We may as well just throw a dice to decide what we should do. Valuation modelling in a market where no one agrees on what players values are is a waste of time. Add risk of injury, loss of form or any other unforeseen and unquantifiable risk and valuation exercises are virtually worthless. A players value at any given time is what a club is ready to pay. It's not a rational market with rational utility curves and there is no information symmetry present. Valuation experts for the value of the club - sure, that's based on observable income so I'd certainly think we would do that. But on players? Really can't see it.
  2. Transfer Talk Topic

    Wow. We are using Sky Sports for sources now? I also think you may want to look into the concept of time value of money - an extremely important factor especially considering how much prices has soared. Imagine what Reals spending would be in today's value when looking at James, Ronaldo and Bale alone! Modric? Mist like claiming that Stones then Walker and then Mendy were the worlds most expensive defenders. Rio Ferdinands transfer from Leeds to Man U would dwarf all three transfer fees by some distance. The bulk of that figure listed for Man U (if even that is correct, can't be bothered to look it up) wasn't even spent by Jose.
  3. Transfer Talk Topic

    Well considering that none of the executives at our club are 'football professionals' I'm a bit uncertain what point you're trying to make. I'd be mightily surprised if we had valuation experts working for us crunching the numbers and trying to predict these things by building valuation models. Most experts aren't even in agreement what a players true value is, which basically shows how hard these things are to establish and virtually impossible when trying to predict the future. We most likely have a view on it but that view is far more likely to be 'gut feeling' or a general direction kind of thing than scientifically established. But sure, go ahead and tell people who work with modelling and valuation that a US lawyer and Nigerian scout are running highly sophisticated valuation models when making decisions on players. Somehow I can't see it... I also happen to have some insights on how we run scouting databases and how proud we are of what we do. Based on that, I really can't see us being very sophisticated with the topic we discuss now.
  4. Transfer Talk Topic

    I'm sure they have. However, there are several points that I made which makes our course of action unwise. Too much uncertainty (player development and injury risk) while the direction of the market for the lower level footballer is hard to predict. I see little value having those players hanging around - especially when you consider we could use the proceeds to strengthen now. Regarding the bolded bit, clearly not true. Factor in 'football inflation' and it's not even close. Many good points raised on Matic though. Personally I think he wanting to leave is grounded in; 1. He knows that Jose knows how to utilise him best 2. He fell out with the club in the 2015-16 season (probably both salary claims but also how that season was handled by the club) Just speculating of course.
  5. Transfer Talk Topic

    Well at face value that all sounds great. However, one has to ask oneself whether that really is a sensible strategy. Surely the interesting thing to look at here is; 1. What can we get for £30m today? 2. What can we get for £50m in two years? 3. Will prices of lower level players grow as much as top players? 4. Will the players improve beyond their current level? 5. Risk of injury 6. How much of their salaries do we cover while on loan? Personally I'd rather we'd sell them and re-invented it in players that would help us now.
  6. Transfer Talk Topic

    ^ Michael, although those numbers are vastly inflated with players who won't really play a part for the first teams (as you say), it's my understanding that we nearly always have smaller squads compared to our competitors. You can always discuss the merits of each individual player, but it's seems we are the only club that has taken an active decision on having small squads. By the way, Tottenham may have something to say about being left out of your list;)
  7. Transfer Talk Topic

    Who did he play "out of position"? Just curious to hear your thoughts. Yes I do blame the board for not giving a title winning manager a squad to rry and retain the league with. And I'll do the same if/when it happens to Conte.
  8. Transfer Talk Topic

    Well he's been an automatic starter under two separate PL winning managers and has made the most tackles and interceptions of any player in the league over the last three seasons. He's an excellent signing for them.
  9. Transfer Talk Topic

    Bang on. Calling Barkley an "oaf" is wide off the mark. Sure he's not a world class player but certainly a decent enough PL player that could offer depth for our AM positions. Add Oxlade-Chamberlain and Sandro and our squad is starting to look half decent.
  10. Transfer Talk Topic

    Sure - but every time a manager plays an underperforming player he gambles with his job. Ultimately the situation we have at the club is created by the board and their actions. Not backing title winning managers with a proper squad has happened on more than one occasion and bar a minor miracle will happen this summer as well. When things goes downhill we sack the manager and start over again. What is Conte supposed to do? Give Musonda, Baker, Kenedy and Boga plenty of minutes and lose his job by Christmas? Or play the 12-14 outfield players that performs into the ground? Of course the latter. But that will have consequences for those players long term and is not sustainable. The first step to solve this is to give the manager a squad. But we are failing at that hurdle time and time again. That is the boards fault - absolutely no doubt about that.
  11. Transfer Talk Topic

    Surely that goes both ways no? I see a very staunch Conte supporter not critisicing Conte for what he criticises Mourinho for (it's not you). But when a manager knows he can get the sack after winning titles but enduring a bad run, chances are they'll pick the players that perform now and not the ones who might perform after a 6-12 month bedding in period. Salah was **** every time he took to the field for us. Ditto KDB and Cuadrado, They wanted games and hence moved on. Not too disimilar to what Conte has done with a whole host of players over the past season and now we have an extremely short squad but no one blames Conte - just the club. If Jose had been here he'd taken a lot of **** for the current situation. By the way, I understand why Conte has played his cards as he has. Much like I understood why Mourinho played his in the manner he did. A manager at Chelsea aren't afforded time to develop players - they need to perform instantly or the manager will play someone who does.
  12. Transfer Talk Topic

    My bad! For some reason I thought he came here Feb 2013 when he arrived in Feb 2012.
  13. Transfer Talk Topic

    Exactly. However, I do not think that Christensen will count as HG next season. Absolutely. If Pep doesn't win the title this season I can't see him staying. By far the best squad. I disagree. They have awesome cover all over the pitch and the balance is perfect - a lot more attacking players compared to defensive ones. We on the other hand are immensely unbalanced with eight players for the front five positions.
  14. Transfer Talk Topic

    Yep - hence the discussion that English top clubs should/could have B sides in the football league a few years back. Well it was one of the arguments at least apart from giving them adult competitive football while being in control over the playing time and development.
  15. Transfer Talk Topic

    Cheers. As it stands, I'm not really counting on Kenedy... But he may have to be our back-up LWB if we fail to find one before the window shuts. In that case, it may prove to be an issue. On the their hand, we may just not register Eduardo for the CL squad thereby freeing up a foreign place.
  16. Transfer Talk Topic

    Yes. The only difference is that four of the HG players needs to be club trained whereas the other four can be association trained. Has no impact whatsoever on us.
  17. Transfer Talk Topic

    Not really James. Our squad is so small, having enough HG players aren't really an issue. Foreign (14): Courtois, Caballero, Eduardo, Luiz, Alonso, Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Kante, Bakayoko, Hazard, Pedro, Willian, Morata, Bats HG/U-21 (5): Cahill, Christensen, Fabregas, Moses, Musonda We can buy three more foreign players and still be within the allowance. It's HIGHLY unlikely we will buy more than three imo.
  18. Transfer Talk Topic

    Yes I think that sounds very reasonable. The sound from the club has always been that we should be self-sufficient and I believe we have been since 2010 or so. So that will definitely be a valid reason I reckon.
  19. Squad Status: 2020/21 Season

    Absolutely. That's what usually happens these days. I've been worried all summer. Ridiculous stance according to some. Sure we still have time left but my gosh - aren't pre-season to make sure that the team gels and that the players get used to one another while also gaining fitness? Even if we do manage to get another 2-3 players in before the window closes (I'd be amazed if it happened), they won't be up and running until late September/early October the earliest.
  20. Transfer Talk Topic

    Yes - I agree we were suckers for agreeing to comply when no other top club seem to care. But I'm sure UEFA would have taken a slightly different stand on it had we done what PSG, City, Barca and Real are doing... After all, we are the enemy of football are we not?
  21. Transfer Talk Topic

    Maybe Verratti is the midfielder we have targeted but just waited for PSG to finalise their Neymar deal? Yeah yeah, I know... But one can dream eh!
  22. Transfer Talk Topic

    Not necessarily. City has achieved a certain standing in the game and hence, much of their income as a club would stay intact (minus the obviously inflated sponsorship deals from related companies to their owners). Theyd still have an income on par, or thereabouts, to us, Arsenal and Liverpool. So it's not like they'd disappear completely (although they wouldn't be able to have a net spend of £80-90m/season). They'd probably have to come down to our level (£30-40m). But they have a very young and talented squad now so would be set for a few years anyways. With good planning they wouldn't necessarily have to sell off too many players.
  23. Squad Status: 2020/21 Season

    Considering that Conte has confirmed we were after Walker and Danilo himself has said he chose City over us, I think we can be fairly sure AOC wasn't our first choice RWB option. I do however agree that it is unlikely that Drinkwater or Sanches were our first choice CM option. Sandro seems to be our first choice LWB. I'm just worried we will be left empty-handed come deadline day after Juve refuses to sell.
  24. Squad Status: 2020/21 Season

    Well I think we can be quite sure that neither Ox nor Sanches was his first options. They're more likely he's 2nd or even 3rd choices... So if these players (if we indeed are interested in them) aren't available are we likely to pursue 3rd, 4th or even 5th options? Like you, I'm seriously worried. We need to look over how we handle ourselves in the summer windows.
  25. Transfer Talk Topic

    Well we are unlikely to be able to have any sort of budget with "profits and money reserves..." My point was that it's not his money like you claimed. The profit the club makes would theoretically be his. But it's so small it's irrelevant to even mention it.