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On 26/04/2020 at 5:27 PM, chara said:

How can any club discuss salary levels with a potential new player when there are issues regarding wage cuts?

I wonder if actually players will be desperate to discuss terms with prospective new clubs. You might not get what the going rate was as recently as 3 months ago, but that going rate isn't going to recover for lots of clubs. Might make sense to accept a lesser offer soon and have that locked in for a few years than to wait and have only lesser lesser offers in 6 or 12 month's time.

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2 hours ago, thevelourfog said:

I wonder if actually players will be desperate to discuss terms with prospective new clubs. You might not get what the going rate was as recently as 3 months ago, but that going rate isn't going to recover for lots of clubs. Might make sense to accept a lesser offer soon and have that locked in for a few years than to wait and have only lesser lesser offers in 6 or 12 month's time.

I have been thinking about this too. Personally, I think unless the player is out of contract, is on super low wages for their ability or only has one year left, they are best off waiting and staying where they are. 

For instance, I do not see why Jadon Sancho would move this Summer. The reason I say this is due to the following; 

1) He is already on £200k a week. If he moves this Summer is he really going to get much improvement on this? 

2) He only has 2 years left on his contract and is only 19 years old. If he waits a year his fee will drop and he should be able to pick up higher wages due to it. In fact, as he is so young waiting 2 years at Dortmund to then going on a free at 21 would probably make the most financial sense as he is rated as a £100m+ talent in a pre-Covid world. 

3) The Euros have been moved to 2021. At the moment, he is one of the first names on Dortmund's team sheet and is settled. Is it worth him risking this stability in the year before a championships? 

4) Football has consistently shown itself to be recession proof. Obviously the covid situation is different due to the nature of it, however the smart money would be on this being a short/medium term issue rather than a medium/long term (I am talking exclusively about elite level here). 

 

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14 minutes ago, King Kante said:

4) Football has consistently shown itself to be recession proof. Obviously the covid situation is different due to the nature of it, however the smart money would be on this being a short/medium term issue rather than a medium/long term (I am talking exclusively about elite level here). 

I definitely agree most footballers at PL/Championship/financial equivalent clubs should be looking to stay on their current deals for now. It's only really those at contract renewal points or at upward junctures in their careers I was wondering about. 

The only part of your reasoning I'd really disagree with is this. Football, at least at the elite level, has never really had to deal with a recession at all to my mind, never mind successfully navigated them. The elite level is made elite by match day and (overwhelmingly) TV revenue. Those are two things that haven't been touched by recent economic struggles but could very much be in flux in the next few years, regardless of what happens more generally in and to the economy. I don't think the smart money is on normality resuming any time soon. It's not just about the old way of doing things not currently being possible. It's about what things get done in the short term to get around them, and which of those things remain attractive and open up markets even if we could go back to 'normal'.

Who knows, though. 

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chara   

Thoughtful input from KK and TVF....just a thought...Sancho at the minute is in demand and can pick and choose even during this strange time but if he waits two years?...injury could hold him back..look at RLC....not the same situation exactly but injury affected his development and there is always the loss of form or dropping off of progress...wouldn't be the first young "super star" to fade..

 

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1 hour ago, King Kante said:

I have been thinking about this too. Personally, I think unless the player is out of contract, is on super low wages for their ability or only has one year left, they are best off waiting and staying where they are. 

For instance, I do not see why Jadon Sancho would move this Summer. The reason I say this is due to the following; .............

4) Football has consistently shown itself to be recession proof. Obviously the covid situation is different due to the nature of it, however the smart money would be on this being a short/medium term issue rather than a medium/long term (I am talking exclusively about elite level here). 

 

1-3 yes.  4 as TVF says, you never ever really know.
Nassim Taleb (he of the black swan) has another bird analogy, the Thanksgiving (or Christmas) Turkey who has always been fed well every day
turkey taleb

 

I've said often that TV money may entirely dominate in a post lockdown world.  The two key issues will be how to entertain with minimal physical audiences (which is in fact by far the best argument for standing) and the split of TV moneys (PL system vs say Spanish system).

33 minutes ago, chara said:

Thoughtful input from KK and TVF....just a thought...Sancho at the minute is in demand and can pick and choose even during this strange time but if he waits two years?...injury could hold him back..look at RLC....not the same situation exactly but injury affected his development and there is always the loss of form or dropping off of progress...wouldn't be the first young "super star" to fade..

The real question is whether any club is ready to go out and bid 2019 prices for 2021 prices.  I don't think any can, let alone will.
I do think we will be ready to outbid anyone else though.  If Mbappe was breaking through this year, he would be ours next year.  Question is more about how many players " on super low wages for their ability " (as KK describes) are out there.  Plus whether clubs can find clever ways of extending contracts without big binding commitments such as a transfer split agreement with players.

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Sciatika   
 
 
 
 
16 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

how to entertain with minimal physical audiences (which is in fact by far the best argument for standing)...

I think the issue will be how to limit the number of people you come into contact with each other rather than the size of the audience whether seated or not.

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chara   
6 hours ago, Sciatika said:

I think the issue will be how to limit the number of people you come into contact with each other rather than the size of the audience whether seated or not.

It's not just at a game...getting there...getting in....even a small crowd creates bottlenecks and lets face it...a lot of d*******s out there who will never think it through...... enough tragedy in the past without adding a silent danger....can't fix stupid...

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Sciatika   
 
 
 
 
1 hour ago, chara said:

can't fix stupid...

so true

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1 hour ago, chara said:

It's not just at a game...getting there...getting in....even a small crowd creates bottlenecks and lets face it...a lot of d*******s out there who will never think it through...... enough tragedy in the past without adding a silent danger....can't fix stupid...

Good point - the tube is the highest risk part, that and getting on/off at Fulham Broadway.

7 hours ago, Sciatika said:

I think the issue will be how to limit the number of people you come into contact with each other rather than the size of the audience whether seated or not.

From the fans point of view, sure, for me I think low crowds is inevitable both from seating limitations and from lack of demand.  How many people expect to renew Season tickets for next August?
 

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chara   
5 minutes ago, Droy was my hero said:

Good point - the tube is the highest risk part, that and getting on/off at Fulham Broadway.


 

T'was always thus..... abiding memory of being crushed getting to the platform after an evening game and watching the ticket collectors box "surfing" through the crowd..and thanks Droy for the surfing ref..describes it to a T.

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