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41 minutes ago, King Kante said:

Well it depends. If this CV business only goes on for 3-18 weeks then I think we will have a recession that will be pretty bad but not as bad as the previous one in 2008; although we do run a higher risk of high inflation due to the return of QE. 

I think it is much worse already than 2008.  More over that mostly affected the rich (and was dealt with by supporting asset prices).  This time anyone in a zero hours service job is pretty much unemployed already (unless they do delivery).

3.3 million Americans filed new unemployment claims in one week as announced on Thursday.  

Edited by Droy was my hero

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2 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

I think it is much worse already than 2008.  More over that mostly affected the rich (and was dealt with by supporting asset prices).  This time anyone in a zero hours service job is pretty much unemployed already (unless they do delivery).

3.3 million Americans filed new unemployment claims in one week as announced on Thursday.  

I think it depends. If the western economies can get up and running again in the next 3-16 weeks or so then I think it will not get to '08 levels as this is a shut down rather than systemic problems within the banking/financial markets. Obviously, the longer this goes on the bigger the issues particularly for certain sectors I.e. travel/motor etc. 

It really is a waiting game at the moment but sooner rather than later hard questions are going to have to be asked about what exactly is the cost/benefit ratio we are getting from the lockdown. 

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7 minutes ago, King Kante said:

Obviously, the longer this goes on the bigger the issues particularly for certain sectors I.e. travel/motor etc. 

Do you think you will travel abroad in 2021 if it all clears up this summer?
When do you think you will next eat in a restaurant?  Pre-match beers before the next Chelsea game or a whatsapp group chat?

I'm right with you on the lockdown, and expect this all to finish sooner rather than later.  But somethings will change forever.
And worse, in the extremely unlikely event that the Economy tried to return to normal quickly there will be massive inflation with all that government debt, spending and central bank lending resulting in a real austerity economy nothing like 2008+ at all.

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1 hour ago, Droy was my hero said:

Do you think you will travel abroad in 2021 if it all clears up this summer?
When do you think you will next eat in a restaurant?  Pre-match beers before the next Chelsea game or a whatsapp group chat?

I'm right with you on the lockdown, and expect this all to finish sooner rather than later.  But somethings will change forever.
And worse, in the extremely unlikely event that the Economy tried to return to normal quickly there will be massive inflation with all that government debt, spending and central bank lending resulting in a real austerity economy nothing like 2008+ at all.

Personally I have re-booked my trip to Israel that I was meant to go on today to October. As soon as the lock down is over I will be going out for meals and drinks. However, I do have a very devil may care sort of attitude so I may not be typical. 

I agree that inflation is going to be an issue and that could lead to a 1970/80's type inflation cycle, particularly with the Saudi's messing about with oil prices to gut the shale industry. However, I am not so sure a 6-12 week 'stop' will have as dire consequences as 2008 as that was a systemic issue that was almost as bad as 1929. The real deciding factor on whether this will be worse is, did the actions of 2008-12 (QE in particular) solve the problems of 2008 (by preventing a 1929 type crash) or did it just kick it down the road? If it is indeed the latter than we are facing a meltdown on par with General Crisis (17th Century) which is typically seen as the biggest upheaval in history. 

 

Edited by King Kante

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19 minutes ago, King Kante said:

However, I am not so sure a 6-12 week 'stop' will have as dire consequences as 2008 as that was a systemic issue that was almost as bad as 1929.

I think you may find that the banks now are in as dire a state as they were in 2008.  They are all trading at prices which suggests they need bailouts now.
Good luck with finding people to go drinking with later in the year.  Mind if you have been a teacher for past 3 months you are very likely a high risk taker who has already had the virus.

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The forecast for the UK economy is for a 12 to 15% contraction . unemployment expected to double

Basically the world is fooked. As it stands we are in the phoney war once out the g.ment will stop all aid and that's when the s will really hit the fan 

Winning the war is the easy part. Winning the peace will take years 

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paulw66   
18 hours ago, King Kante said:

Personally I have re-booked my trip to Israel that I was meant to go on today to October. As soon as the lock down is over I will be going out for meals and drinks. However, I do have a very devil may care sort of attitude so I may not be typical. 

 

As soon as this is over, almost everyone will want to go out - a lot. 

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The country needs to return to work in the very near future - within April. 
 

If this doesn’t happen then, we are in meltdown for years to come. These hundreds of billions of pounds that are being used now, will only come back in from one place - the tax paying workers. 
 

All tax payers will face the additional burden. The only people who’s lives won’t change much I suspect, are the lazy loafers who exploit our benefits systems. Hopefully there’s a government who’s brave enough to tackle this as well, not sure one exists though. 

In times of financial depression mortality rates jump up to rates that make COVID 19’s look very small. There was a Professor of Economics on LBC last week stating this very point and making the argument that the lockdown may save lives now, but the ramifications for future life expectancy outweighs the actual actions being taken. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, East Lower said:

If this doesn’t happen then, we are in meltdown for years to come. These hundreds of billions of pounds that are being used now, will only come back in from one place - the tax paying workers. 

I think most are already working on that assumption.

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25 minutes ago, Droy was my hero said:

I think most are already working on that assumption.

After some of the comments I hear from the PAYE employees that I've come into contact with, I wouldn't bet too much on that.

They're taking the view that this is just more paid holiday and a burden their employers will have to bear - A few of the lads I work with (self-employed, like myself) have christened them 'Home-Shirkers'.

Zero disrespect for those who are actually working from home, full-on.

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