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Official: Chelsea Appoint Maurizio Sarri as Head Coach

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Panda   

Totally agree with the last few posts. It's so nice to see some of us have the patience needed for what is without a doubt a real transition season (not the 5/6 fake ones Arsenal had)

This said, I think the second half of this season could be a bit tougher than the first. We have to play Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, and Man United away. If we're to finish in the top four this season I feel we need to be taking points from most of those games. Therefore, we simply need to make the right signings this month. A striker is an absolute priority if we are to remain on course for the 81 points suggested by samhoward17.

I'm generally optimistic. With a full pre-season and the right signings in the summer we will see a genuine, full transition to 'Sarriball'.

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11 hours ago, samhoward17 said:

On course for 81 points and 1 point off third place.

Not trying to assert Sarri is a disaster (I think he's doing all that could be reasonably asked) but I take issue with this. I disagree that we are at all on course for 81 points, as it does not reflect at all how many points we have dropped in home fixtures we were favourites for and how many challenging away fixtures we have remaining. Will we get as many points in a half season involving trips to Anfield, Old Trafford, the Etihad, the Emirates, and Goodison Park as in a half season where we don't? I sincerely doubt it. Factor the difficulty of remaining fixtures in, along with the potential for draining Cup runs (especially the Europa if that becomes imperative for CL qualification) and you can knock, even being conservative and optimistic, 10-12 points off that. 

81 points would be heroic, rather than something we are steadily working towards. 

Edited by thevelourfog

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paulw66   
11 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

Not trying to assert Sarri is a disaster (I think he's doing all that could be reasonably asked) but I take issue with this. I disagree that we are at all on course for 81 points, as it does not reflect at all how many points we have dropped in home fixtures we were favourites for and how many challenging away fixtures we have remaining. Will we get as many points in a half season involving trips to Anfield, Old Trafford, the Etihad, the Emirates, and Goodison Park as in a half season where we don't? I sincerely doubt it. Factor the difficulty of remaining fixtures in, along with the potential for draining Cup runs (especially the Europa if that becomes imperative for CL qualification) and you can knock, even being conservative and optimistic, 10-12 points off that. 

81 points would be heroic, rather than something we are steadily working towards. 

We don't need "as many" . We have 47 from 22, so to get 81 points, we need 34 more from 16 games. If you reckon we should take 12 points off the estimate, you are suggesting we are only going to get 22 points from the last 16 games, which is pretty feeble. 

Remaining home games: Huddersfield, Brighton, Spurs, Wolves, West Ham, Burnley and Watford - we should be looking to win most of these.  

Away games: Arsenal, Bournemouth, City, Fulham, Everton, Cardiff, Liverpool, Man Utd, Leicester - yup, some tricky away games. 

I have done game by game predictions and estimate we will get 81 points (coincidentally) and that allowed for defeats at City and Liverpool, draws at Arsenal, Everton and United, and at home to Spurs , so nothing too ridiculous, just winning the games we should do. 

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23 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

We don't need "as many" . We have 47 from 22, so to get 81 points, we need 34 more from 16 games. If you reckon we should take 12 points off the estimate, you are suggesting we are only going to get 22 points from the last 16 games, which is pretty feeble. 

Remaining home games: Huddersfield, Brighton, Spurs, Wolves, West Ham, Burnley and Watford - we should be looking to win most of these.  

Away games: Arsenal, Bournemouth, City, Fulham, Everton, Cardiff, Liverpool, Man Utd, Leicester - yup, some tricky away games. 

I have done game by game predictions and estimate we will get 81 points (coincidentally) and that allowed for defeats at City and Liverpool, draws at Arsenal, Everton and United, and at home to Spurs , so nothing too ridiculous, just winning the games we should do. 

Like Everton, Southampton and Leicester at home. Or at home to a dreadful United. Or when 1-0 up going into the last minute against Liverpool ...

So far we've taken, to two decimal places, 2.14 points per game. 34 points from the remaining 16 games would be ... 2.13 points per game. Whatever way you call it, to say we are on course for 81 points is to say that we will reproduce in the remainder of the season what we have already done so far.

Personally I would say that your allowances are optimistic. Not out-of-this-world and of course we have it in us to get the results you predict or better, but I would expect each of the top five or six clubs to be aspiring to beating each other at home and think the bookies will have us losing more points in those fixtures than you are allowing for. I think it's often enough the case that bigger clubs struggle against teams fighting for survival later in the season; we definitely have form for that.

81 points would be (when you're being realistic about where we are this season) a real achievement. I hope we get (at least!) there, but maintain 'on course' is too strong a way to look at it.

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1 hour ago, thevelourfog said:

. I disagree that we are at all on course for 81 points, as it does not reflect at all how many points we have dropped in home fixtures we were favourites for and how many challenging away fixtures we have remaining.

But it also doesn't reflect that we are going through the toughest part of the season with the biggest squad in the PL instead of the smallest.

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5 minutes ago, Droy was my hero said:

But it also doesn't reflect that we are going through the toughest part of the season with the biggest squad in the PL instead of the smallest.

I'm not following; do you expect us to equal or better our points tally thus far in the remaining games?

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paulw66   
12 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

Like Everton, Southampton and Leicester at home. Or at home to a dreadful United. Or when 1-0 up going into the last minute against Liverpool ...

So far we've taken, to two decimal places, 2.14 points per game. 34 points from the remaining 16 games would be ... 2.13 points per game. Whatever way you call it, to say we are on course for 81 points is to say that we will reproduce in the remainder of the season what we have already done so far.

Personally I would say that your allowances are optimistic. Not out-of-this-world and of course we have it in us to get the results you predict or better, but I would expect each of the top five or six clubs to be aspiring to beating each other at home and think the bookies will have us losing more points in those fixtures than you are allowing for. I think it's often enough the case that bigger clubs struggle against teams fighting for survival later in the season; we definitely have form for that.

81 points would be (when you're being realistic about where we are this season) a real achievement. I hope we get (at least!) there, but maintain 'on course' is too strong a way to look at it.

But also I have been fairly pessimisstic in the away game predictions. Win one or two of the ones I have as draws, then that allows one or two slips at home. 

We will see I guess, but Betfair have us at 1/4 to get top 4. A 6 point lead at this stage is fairly decent. 

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paulw66   
9 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

I'm not following; do you expect us to equal or better our points tally thus far in the remaining games?

I think he is implying we are better equipped than some of our rivals in squad depth.

Spurs for example, look a little thin on the ground. 

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Just now, paulw66 said:

But also I have been fairly pessimisstic in the away game predictions. Win one or two of the ones I have as draws, then that allows one or two slips at home. 

We will see I guess, but Betfair have us at 1/4 to get top 4. A 6 point lead at this stage is fairly decent. 

Instant reply (I was still in this thread!) ...

Those odds on top 4 look right; I just think it might take fewer points to get there than 81. I also don't see Arsenal repeating a 22-game unbeaten run, or United carrying on as they are. Saturday is a huge game; get a result there and we've got a real cushion.

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paulw66   
7 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

Instant reply (I was still in this thread!) ...

Those odds on top 4 look right; I just think it might take fewer points to get there than 81. I also don't see Arsenal repeating a 22-game unbeaten run, or United carrying on as they are. Saturday is a huge game; get a result there and we've got a real cushion.

If we win there, they are almost out of the reckoning IMO. A draw would do me. 

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