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BlueFizz   
10 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

Well I would never trust sky Italy or any of the media, I make a point of calling them liars.  But if I wanted to disbelieve the bookies I could be paid about £2 for every £1 I risked by calling them liars. It is probably the right bet to make (that he doesn''t go there), it certainly pays well.  But you or I would feel a lot less certain that he was staying if we make that bet.

Not sure about that assumption... bookies offer starting odds but then they shorten or lengthen according to punter action. If you get a lot of action on a bet (eg Lampard back to Chelsea) so odds are shortened. Just logic - you don’t want to pay out at long odds on an expensive book.

So it’s more of a self-fulfilling prophesy than astute bookie knowledge.

(Used to work at the Tote when I was a student).

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10 hours ago, Rob B said:

Steve Holland would probably be my choice too.

Really.  Southgate's assistant.
Would anyone want Southgate?  Presumably he ought to be even better than Holland, but I wouldn't want him.

 

7 hours ago, BlueFizz said:

Not sure about that assumption... bookies offer starting odds but then they shorten or lengthen according to punter action. If you get a lot of action on a bet (eg Lampard back to Chelsea) so odds are shortened. Just logic - you don’t want to pay out at long odds on an expensive book.

So it’s more of a self-fulfilling prophesy than astute bookie knowledge.

(Used to work at the Tote when I was a student).

If you look on betfair there were large sums of money trying to back Sarri at significant odds on, and there have been trades at that level for 3 days or more.
This is not a sharp squeeze in prices to suck a few punters in.  This is serious money over 3 days which appears to still be there.

Moreover the odds on all the alternatives are long.

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1 hour ago, Droy was my hero said:

If you look on betfair there were large sums of money trying to back Sarri at significant odds on, and there have been trades at that level for 3 days or more.
This is not a sharp squeeze in prices to suck a few punters in.  This is serious money over 3 days which appears to still be there.

I seriously think that you should get out more!

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Rob B   
1 hour ago, Droy was my hero said:

Really.  Southgate's assistant.
Would anyone want Southgate?  Presumably he ought to be even better than Holland, but I wouldn't want him.

Odd logic, and even stranger to refer to Steve Holland simply as Southgate’s assistant 

I prefer, a mainstay at the club in a period of turbulent change, AVB, RDM, Rafa etc, and an influential figure to us winning two European titles and god knows how many other trophies in those 5-6 years.

A good age, has worked under some great managers, and I suspect the real brains behind the resurgence of the national team these past few years, with Southgate doing the PR side of things (and very well tbf)

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37 minutes ago, Rob B said:

Odd logic, and even stranger to refer to Steve Holland simply as Southgate’s assistant 

I prefer, a mainstay at the club in a period of turbulent change, AVB, RDM, Rafa etc, and an influential figure to us winning two European titles and god knows how many other trophies in those 5-6 years.

A good age, has worked under some great managers, and I suspect the real brains behind the resurgence of the national team these past few years, with Southgate doing the PR side of things (and very well tbf)

 The same could be said of Steve Clarke.  

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7 hours ago, Michael Tucker said:

I seriously think that you should get out more!

The tag only allows him to wander to the bottom of the garden every second Tuesday! 😉😉

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8 hours ago, RobertoftheGiz said:

 The same could be said of Steve Clarke.  

Yes but he's only just taken the Scotland job.

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11 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

Really.  Southgate's assistant.
Would anyone want Southgate?  Presumably he ought to be even better than Holland, but I wouldn't want him.

 

If you look on betfair there were large sums of money trying to back Sarri at significant odds on, and there have been trades at that level for 3 days or more.
This is not a sharp squeeze in prices to suck a few punters in.  This is serious money over 3 days which appears to still be there.

Moreover the odds on all the alternatives are long.

Bookies do not attract punters to a particular bet by shortening prices, they do it by lengthening them, which makes the bet look more attractive, whereas shortening them has the opposite effect.

Furthermore, Betfair is not a bookmaker, it's a betting exchange and the prices on offer are purely the consequence of the weight of money being placed on the various options by punters. It's true that there are “spoof” bets placed in an effort to manipulate the prices on offer. Placing large amounts on a particular option to reduce the price on it will result in a corresponding lengthening of prices on other options, since the book has to remain balanced. And so it can be used as a strategy by some punters to bring about an increase in the price of an option that they are really interested in.

However, spoof trades like that are overwhelmingly used in very fast-moving markets, like the final 10 minutes or so of a pre-race market on a horse race. They're far less likely to be employed in a comparatively longer term market. Therefore the money placed on Sarri to move may be genuine but it still doesn't necessarily mean that it's based on inside information though.

 

Edited by PeteRobbo

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10 hours ago, Michael Tucker said:

I seriously think that you should get out more!

I suggest that is proof you don't.

 

37 minutes ago, PeteRobbo said:

However, spoof trades like that are overwhelmingly used in very fast-moving markets, like the final 10 minutes or so of a pre-race market on a horse race. They're far less likely to be employed in a comparatively longer term market. Therefore the money placed on Sarri to move may be genuine but it still doesn't necessarily mean that it's based on inside information though.

This - the Sarri prices over 3 or 4 days (and long odds available on everyone else) show that this is a genuine expectation.
They may be wrong, and they certainly go against my interpretation of events, but they can't be ignored and they are certainly a much better predictor of what is happening that the media.

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