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35 minutes ago, Droy was my hero said:

I suggest that is proof you don't.

 

This - the Sarri prices over 3 or 4 days (and long odds available on everyone else) show that this is a genuine expectation.
They may be wrong, and they certainly go against my interpretation of events, but they can't be ignored and they are certainly a much better predictor of what is happening that the media.

But aren't all those bets to a greater or lesser extent influenced by the media stories? If there were NO media stories at all about Sarri, would the odds on him going to Juve be so short?

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Just now, Bob Singleton said:

But aren't all those bets to a greater or lesser extent influenced by the media stories? If there were NO media stories at all about Sarri, would the odds on him going to Juve be so short?

Who knows - it could be either way - but the bets (and continued availability of long odds for everyone else) are a great predictor of it being true.
The media comments are a lousy predictor.

Convincing a hack to write a click bait story is not evidence of anyone taking a point of view as credible.
Convincing punters to bet £ thousands suggests the story has legs
 

If I had a spare grand I'd try to lay Sarri to get back £4k.  Or put £200 on each of JM, Pep, and a couple of others and maybe make more.
If people really dislike the story they all have that option.  That is why it demands respect.

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2 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

This - the Sarri prices over 3 or 4 days (and long odds available on everyone else) show that this is a genuine expectation.
They may be wrong, and they certainly go against my interpretation of events, but they can't be ignored and they are certainly a much better predictor of what is happening that the media.

That may well be true. However, you have to bear in mind that, as I said, there may be some spoof trades at work here. Lumping a hefty wad on an option to force the price down can be and frequently is a preliminary step. Those who had placed those bets on the favourite can then also back the newly emerging option, the price of which will have drifted to something more favourable.

Then, later when new info re: an alternative option emerges, which consequently brings the price on that new option down, the price on the original favourite, (Sarri in this case), will have to drift out somewhat. At that point, those scalpers who initially forced the Sarri price down, can then find ways to trade out at a profit. 

Yes, it's a nefarious marketplace alright, but it can be a lot of fun playing the game. The usual rules apply of course. Simply never trade/bet with money you can't afford to lose. Just have fun, that's all.

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2 hours ago, Bob Singleton said:

But aren't all those bets to a greater or lesser extent influenced by the media stories? If there were NO media stories at all about Sarri, would the odds on him going to Juve be so short?

Yes, there's truth in that Bob, but again it doesn't necessarily mean that the opinion is well-founded.

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1 hour ago, Droy was my hero said:

Who knows - it could be either way - but the bets (and continued availability of long odds for everyone else) are a great predictor of it being true.
The media comments are a lousy predictor.

Convincing a hack to write a click bait story is not evidence of anyone taking a point of view as credible.
Convincing punters to bet £ thousands suggests the story has legs
 

If I had a spare grand I'd try to lay Sarri to get back £4k.  Or put £200 on each of JM, Pep, and a couple of others and maybe make more.
If people really dislike the story they all have that option.  That is why it demands respect.

Or that they've been suckered in to back what they think is a good thing because of the collapsing price. Doesn't necessarily mean that their investment was a wise one.

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1 minute ago, PeteRobbo said:

Yes, there's truth in that Bob, but again it doesn't necessarily mean that the opinion is well-founded.

I'm not saying the opinion is well founded (or not).

DWMH seems to be suggesting that there is little or no correlation between the odds and media stories... he's wrong, of course!

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kev61   
On 31/05/2019 at 0:10 PM, PeteRobbo said:

What job? The quote I made about your spelling was entirely related to the content that you'd posted previously. That fact eluded you unsurprisingly and it seemed that you were the worst for wear through drinking excessively. Nothing wrong with that either. I presumed, as I'd already said, that you we’re drowning your sorrows because of our magnificent success.

Now do me a favour and find something else to bitch about or I'll have to expel you from the class altogether.

ola meu amigo.You know what pete you are a nasty piece of work - why do you associate Rod with drinking,because he has similar views to me? - I hold my hands up I am a dick head with drink on board but I know what I'm talking about most of the time.

Stop playing to the crowd pete I suspect you are better than that.

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2 minutes ago, kev61 said:

ola meu amigo.You know what pete you are a nasty piece of work - why do you associate Rod with drinking,because he has similar views to me? - I hold my hands up I am a dick head with drink on board but I know what I'm talking about most of the time.

Stop playing to the crowd pete I suspect you are better than that.

You're talking bollocks Kev. I don't play to any crowd.

You're just a ********. Goodbye to you.

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kev61   
Just now, PeteRobbo said:

You're talking bollocks Kev. I don't play to any crowd.

You're just a ********. Goodbye to you.

You do and the worst part of it you don't even know it! ta ra for now

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