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Michael Tucker

Frank Lampard Appointed Chelsea Head Coach

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3 hours ago, Bob Singleton said:

No, I've already told you what I think. As usual you have chosen to ignore what I've actually written and interpreted some imaginary conversation you've had with me in your head and typed that out instead. You do it with me, you do it with others, and it really is very tiresome. Goodbye.

1.  You started this Really business. 

18 hours ago, Bob Singleton said:

Really????

2.  All I have stated is the converse to my first statement - the one you questioned.  No mention of your other statements, imagined or otherwise.
Perhaps you imagined something else.

 

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3 hours ago, BlueFizz said:

For the benefit of JaneB - Droy’s full explanation is great. I would just add to this point that bookies use opening odds as a ‘tempter’. So, they assess the likelihood a bet being won (eg Frank becoming coach’) look at competitors’ odds, then set theirs as good enough to tempt punters - eg Frank might open at 4-1 (4 x your bet + your stake) then as punters rush in then will tend to shorten odds as the more punters put on a bet the more bookies pay out if it wins. 

Remember, bookies want you to bet, not win - or perhaps to bet, win a bit, but not win big.

True.  But tempters are  generally short term events.  Often just hours or minutes before a race, often by am extrovert bookie at the races, sucking in potential punters.
It doesn't apply to odds that have stood at roughly the same level for a week.  It certainly doesn't apply to 14-1 odds on bets.  In that case it is quite clear the bookie really doesn't want anyone else to bet on Lampard

Edited by Droy was my hero

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JaneB   
13 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

Sure, Good question.   
14 to one (without the Odds on) means that if you bet £1, you get £14 back if you win, plus your original pound.  You can get 14 to 1 on Rafa Benitez to be our next manager (traitor).

14 to 1 odds on, means if you bet £14 on SFL to be our next manager, you get £1 back plus your original £14.

 

Sometimes we talk about implied probabilities 
14 to 1  for Benitez implies that   he has a 7% chance of being the next manager      1/(14+1) = 7%

14 to 1 odds on for Lampard implies that SFL has a 93% chance of being the next manager      14/(14+1) = 93%

(loads of technical issue with implied numbers, but they explain the difference clearly)

 

What do they base they bets on?  a bit of that is the news, some is knowledge of who their betters are (perhaps Old Harry puts 5 grand on his nephew) but ultimately it is just a market based on demand and supply.  If a bookies is down to odds of 14 to 1 odds on, it means he really can't afford to take any more bets on Lampard even at crazy odds, and he can't find any other bookmaker to lay bets off onto.

 

3 hours ago, BlueFizz said:

For the benefit of JaneB - Droy’s full explanation is great. I would just add to this point that bookies use opening odds as a ‘tempter’. So, they assess the likelihood a bet being won (eg Frank becoming coach’) look at competitors’ odds, then set theirs as good enough to tempt punters - eg Frank might open at 4-1 (4 x your bet + your stake) then as punters rush in then will tend to shorten odds as the more punters put on a bet the more bookies pay out if it wins. 

Remember, bookies want you to bet, not win - or perhaps to bet, win a bit, but not win big.

 

 

Thank you gents :-)  I think I need a degree in mathematics to understand this and am still non the wiser really but that says more about me than you!!!

Just want to know who is coming in next and exploring every avenue to try and find out!!!  Please put us out of our misery!!!

 

 

 

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kev61   
12 minutes ago, JaneB said:

 

Thank you gents :-)  I think I need a degree in mathematics to understand this and am still non the wiser really but that says more about me than you!!!

Just want to know who is coming in next and exploring every avenue to try and find out!!!  Please put us out of our misery!!!

 

 

 

To add to that small book makers copy the big five(Williamhill,ladbrokes,bet365,paddy power and corals.I could tell you how to make a good holiday out of them just by signing up with no risk - but that is spam.

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BlueFizz   
1 hour ago, JaneB said:

 

Thank you gents :-)  I think I need a degree in mathematics to understand this and am still non the wiser really but that says more about me than you!!!

Just want to know who is coming in next and exploring every avenue to try and find out!!!  Please put us out of our misery!!!

 

 

 

The thing to avoid is assuming short odds (Frank’s) mean bookies definitely know something we don’t - odds are based on their calculated likelihood (or risk) of something happening, but they really track punters activity in an inverse relationship - the more people bet on Frank, the more they risk paying out so the shorten odds to make their risk less and less.

People too often assume they have insider knowledge, that’s not necessarily case.

Indeed, they are alert to trends that suggest some people might... eg a sudden surge in big money bets for Benitez might worry them and they would actually ‘close the book’ on Benitez.

 

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1 hour ago, JaneB said:

 

Thank you gents :-)  I think I need a degree in mathematics to understand this and am still non the wiser really but that says more about me than you!!!

Just want to know who is coming in next and exploring every avenue to try and find out!!!  

 

 

 

You might as well get all the names linked with the position throw them in a hat and pick one. 

We all know how the club does it business. When they are ready they will tell us. 

On the other hand, If they don’t appoint someone next week, then I suspect tubby’s odds will shorten. He is out of contract on 30 June 

 

Edited by RobertoftheGiz

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13 minutes ago, RobertoftheGiz said:

You might as well get all the names linked with the position throw them in a hat and pick one. 

About as wrong as you could get.  At present it is extremely likely SFL is the next manager and if you think differently, you can be a very rich man if you are right.

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16 minutes ago, RobertoftheGiz said:

 

On the other hand, If they don’t appoint someone next week, then I suspect tubby’s odds will shorten. He is out of contract on 30 June 

 

He's a good manager but if we are to believe that Sarri left because the fans didn't like him the board would be insane to appoint the world's biggest Liverpool supporter , wouldn't they ?

Wouldn't they ....

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kev61   
53 minutes ago, BlueFizz said:

The thing to avoid is assuming short odds (Frank’s) mean bookies definitely know something we don’t - odds are based on their calculated likelihood (or risk) of something happening, but they really track punters activity in an inverse relationship - the more people bet on Frank, the more they risk paying out so the shorten odds to make their risk less and less.

People too often assume they have insider knowledge, that’s not necessarily case.

Indeed, they are alert to trends that suggest some people might... eg a sudden surge in big money bets for Benitez might worry them and they would actually ‘close the book’ on Benitez.

 

Exactly so.People seem to think bookmakers have it easy,yes they do with mug punters,that's how they make money - contrary to popular belief their margins are wafer thin - having said that there are many people making a living out of betting especially since the introduction of betfair.

You will easily make a grand with bookmakers sign ups as I have.look up Mike cruickshank he will get you started and he is genuine.

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kev61   
28 minutes ago, Droy was my hero said:

About as wrong as you could get.  At present it is extremely likely SFL is the next manager and if you think differently, you can be a very rich man if you are right.

You must be a very rich man given you are the fountain of all knowledge.

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