• Current Donation Goals

JaneB

Coronavirus COVID-19

Recommended Posts

Jasonb   
15 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

There are loads of factors which Paul, Mark and I have outlined.
Which country would you expect the virus to spread most quickly during February? - warm, Mediterranean Italy or Spain.
Where would you expect the highest mortality rates? - countries with crap health services (Italy) and a high proportion of over 70s (Italy).
Would you expect young Italians to die? - no, and only 2 under 50 have, both with pre-conditions.

What is happening in Italy is pretty much what will happen in lots of places soon.

Does the aged people, crap health systems, and the kissing have anything to do with immigrants????  Not at all.

 

(Add one more factor.  If you are a normal hospital you don't test 80+ flu victims for obscure viruses if they die.  When it is reported to happen a lot in your region you start some testing.  When the neighbouring hospital admits 5 deaths you admit your first few.  When you have had 50 tested deaths, you start putting Covid-19 on the death certificate without even testing for it.)

Northern Italy is the viral hotspot which is cooler than the South.

I agree mis-reporting can be an issue, the question is how big a factor would this be. I like your brackets comment as you are talking about human nature, laziness and or political correctness as in, 'you cannot spend too much time on looking into this ... Its COV-19!, move on to the next!'

I used to work in business as a root cause analyst - treat the urgent symptoms, identify the causes and address the real issues and also establish correct error reporting..........  

Italy is a major outlier and we don't know yet why that is.

A little while ago the BBC here was concerned that we were importing old infectious diseases via immigration from a certain parts of the world. Now they  also appeared to be living in cramped and probably damp conditions yet it is possible once you are ill to get more than one infection. The BBC concern was probably these diseases were infectious yet another expert advised this was no issue as nearly all of us had been vaccinated. Then another comment was vaccination doesn't necessarily make you immune, the question is whether you have the anti-bodies and that is something that is not tested for. This never became a big issue here just a concern. 

I was reading some time ago that after the Gulf War Mk II when the US bombed the infrastructure including water that Cholera had broken out. The Iraqis were not happy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, The_Ghost said:

Two countries to look into over the next month is Sweden and Holland. It could get pretty bad there unless their governments doesn’t act very, very soon. 

Ukraine too.  Almost 40 million people.   640 tests only.  16 positive.  2 deaths - both under 50.  Yet anecdotally the hospitals are overwhelmed.  Basically a case of a refusal or at least an inability to test and a government too weak to acknowledge the problem.
But truth is most countries are undertested and much nearer Italy's situation than they claim.

 

6 hours ago, The_Ghost said:

By the way, this is a great, great read for anyone interested (or bored enough to bother!)

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

So it starts off with premise that if you crack down on social contact you can avoid mass infections for ever.  I reject that premise and so refused to read the rest (well I skimmed it, it still makes the false claim that suppression is a permanent prevention, not just a delay or technically that Ro can be brought below 1 permanently).
The choice is IMO

  • Crack down hard, support the health service heavily, spread out the mass infections over 2 years leading to a 2+ year recession and serious damage to businesses and institutions that may not ever recover
  • crack down softly, accept the health services will fail, accept many additional deaths, but hope that the crisis is over within 6 months, with a recession of <1 year and hopes than many businesses and institutions will still be around when economy picks up.
     
1 hour ago, Jasonb said:

Italy is a major outlier and we don't know yet why that is.

My guess is that Italy is not a major outlier, just 1 month ahead of many similar outbreaks and 6 -8 weeks behind the one in Wuhan.  There are (see above) good reasons why Italy might suffer first - see above.
And lets not pretend 4,000 deaths is all that many.  Italy is an ageing country of 60 million, and close to 1 million must die each year.  Nearly all of these will be over 70.
4000 Covid19 deaths has to be compared to the rough estimate of 200,000 deaths of 70+ people expected in 3 months.

I dare say some on here have more knowledge of death certificates and the elderly than I do, my knowledge comes from the peaceful death of my Uncle last year at 82.  It seems a lot of deaths that one would normally think of as being just very old and weak, get put down to specific things.  Lung or heart failure are essentially the cause of death so lung infections are an extremely common cause of death as written on death certificates.

Edited by Droy was my hero

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone here know anyone who has it? Not self isolating but actually has it? 

Nobody at my company, or any of their extended families have it  

My brother works for the parts department of a large motor manufacturer who said they'd pay anyone who "had" to self isolate so 80 people coughed a bit and went off for two weeks paid holiday.  Other than that nobody. 

I'm beginning to think it's a test run for something else that dumb and dumber are  cooking up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

Does anyone here know anyone who has it? Not self isolating but actually has it? 

Does anyone know anyone who has actually been tested.  I don't just mean tested positive, I mean tested at all.
For example my niece works at the hospital where all the first patients were tested (they all got put in a specially secure ward).
She just returned from a holiday from an area now in lock-down.  Yet she hasn't been tested.
Nor has another person I know who has taken a day off sick and returned to work as a nurse in A&E in Kent.

And Britain is supposed to be very good at testing relative to the rest of the world.
The simple answer is that for all the date floating around, the actual knowledge is close to zero.

 

5 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

My brother works for the parts department of a large motor manufacturer who said they'd pay anyone who "had" to self isolate so 80 people coughed a bit and went off for two weeks paid holiday.  Other than that nobody. 

Cough up and they cough up.  Cool.

That reminds me that in Wuhan numbers jumped the day they changed the definition of virus carriers from those tested only to anyone with flu like symptoms.

8 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

I'm beginning to think it's a test run for something else that dumb and dumber are  cooking up. 

I doubt it, but I think I know who you mean.
Image result for dumb and dumber

aka Tweedledee and Tweddledummer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Stim   

286 000 worldwide so chances are slim right now, unless you or the people you know are frequent travellers.

My country has 260 cases right now, of over 6k people tested. Or so the government tells me. The only test people who travelled to affected countries or came into contact with someone who tested positive.

Edited by Stim

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
chara   

Something doesn't add up with all that is going on..... I'm no conspiracy theorist but as pointed out who knows someone who has the virus or even tested?

As I mentioned before a family member has first hand knowledge of Chinese Nationals studying here who have contracted the virus..... fact not rumour...but apart from that?...Mrs C returned from UK Tuesday before last..no check at the airport..a crowded flight apparently with many heading for the ski resorts..where the majority of cases ..few as they are..have been reported.....something just out of focus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Stim said:

286 000 worldwide so chances are slim right now, unless you or the people you know are frequent travellers.

286,000 tested positive so far.  Chances are slim than anyone you know is tested positive.

4 minutes ago, chara said:

Something doesn't add up with all that is going on..... I'm no conspiracy theorist but as pointed out who knows someone who has the virus or even tested?

Very difficult to positively have the virus until you get tested.

Simple advice - Don't Get Tested!!!!!     
That may sound familiar to some

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JaneB   

One thing I can do without at the moment is countless 'celebrities' sharing their stories of having the virus, their self-isolation and their anxiety.  They always have to make it about themselves.  The world doesn't revolve round you.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now