• Current Donation Goals

JaneB

Coronavirus COVID-19

Recommended Posts

Stim   

speaking of celebrities, if you had a lot of celebrity friends you'd probably know someone who has been tested :0)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ham   
1 hour ago, JaneB said:

One thing I can do without at the moment is countless 'celebrities' sharing their stories of having the virus, their self-isolation and their anxiety.  They always have to make it about themselves.  The world doesn't revolve round you.

 

 

Sam Smith? They are a complete tw4t, aren't they?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JaneB   
29 minutes ago, Ham said:

Sam Smith? They are a complete tw4t, aren't they?

Amongst others 🙄

And yes, THEY are 🙄

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, blue moon said:

Fascinating read - thanks Ghost

You’re welcome! 
 

5 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

1. But truth is most countries are undertested and much nearer Italy's situation than they claim.

 

2. So it starts off with premise that if you crack down on social contact you can avoid mass infections for ever.  I reject that premise and so refused to read the rest (well I skimmed it, it still makes the false claim that suppression is a permanent prevention, not just a delay or technically that Ro can be brought below 1 permanently).
The choice is IMO

  • Crack down hard, support the health service heavily, spread out the mass infections over 2 years leading to a 2+ year recession and serious damage to businesses and institutions that may not ever recover
  • crack down softly, accept the health services will fail, accept many additional deaths, but hope that the crisis is over within 6 months, with a recession of <1 year and hopes than many businesses and institutions will still be around when economy picks up.

1. So do I. Italy apparently has had the virus since December. It was allowed to spread uncontrollably for almost three months before Italian authorise did anything at all. I’d wager there is a very, very large proportion of the Italian population that has contracted the virus. 
 

2. I’m no expert but has some friends who are. They are telling me this guy is right in the money. Still, think you should read it considering that your two options are essentially what he talks about. He is strongly recommending scenario 1 - which basically the whole western world will adopt in time and the eastern countries did with great success (so far). It’s all about buying time - time to get treatments ready, time for a vaccine to be developed etc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, The_Ghost said:

2. I’m no expert but has some friends who are. They are telling me this guy is right in the money. Still, think you should read it considering that your two options are essentially what he talks about. He is strongly recommending scenario 1 - which basically the whole western world will adopt in time and the eastern countries did with great success (so far). It’s all about buying time - time to get treatments ready, time for a vaccine to be developed etc. 

I did skim it.  Essentially he thinks that if you crack down hard, you can get rid of it pretty much, and then we go back to a normal life with only limited restrictions.
I find it really hard to take that seriously.  We have never done that with ordinary flu.  
The real question is about what it happening in China.  Have they got rid of the virus - or are they in exactly the same situation as the rest of the world is.

There really is almost no proper understanding of what the current situation is anywhere in the world (as we agree on point 1).  To predict that it can be brought under control when we still can't measure it is brave to say the least. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JaneB   

Unsurprisingly very quiet on here so just wanted to say Happy Mother's Day to all Chelsea Mums, whatever form that takes 💙

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Droy was my hero said:

I did skim it.  Essentially he thinks that if you crack down hard, you can get rid of it pretty much, and then we go back to a normal life with only limited restrictions.
I find it really hard to take that seriously.  We have never done that with ordinary flu.  
The real question is about what it happening in China.  Have they got rid of the virus - or are they in exactly the same situation as the rest of the world is.

There really is almost no proper understanding of what the current situation is anywhere in the world (as we agree on point 1).  To predict that it can be brought under control when we still can't measure it is brave to say the least. 

Then you have misunderstood the article and what he actually says. 

As for the measurement part, he also talks about that. Broad testing is the way to go. The more people we test, the better understanding do we get and the better counter measurements we can implement. 

Edited by The_Ghost

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, The_Ghost said:

Then you have misunderstood the article and what he actually says. 

The first picture, before any text, really does claim that if you crack down hard you can get rid of it.  And at no point does he explain why.  Everything else is axiomatic on that.

I think actually I have read what he actually says.  Maybe what he doesn't say is in articles he links to to get his claims.  Maybe it isn't.

He does discuss the important issues of over running the health services (and ICUs in particular).  But since he believes a crackdown is a cure, not a delaying tactic, he doesn't realise that  2+ years at heavy load for the NHS could be worse than 6 months at crisis levels for the population as a whole.

He also doesn't understand that Wuhan is just 1% of China.  That 99% of China in March is showing no sign of a breakout is no more "cured" than Italy in January or UK in February.  Just untested.

 

28 minutes ago, The_Ghost said:

As for the measurement part, he also talks about that. Broad testing is the way to go. The more people we test, the better understanding do we get and the better counter measurements we can implement. 

After which some of the claims he is making can be judged.  But assume back ground levels of 0.1%.  You'd need to do random testing of 100k people to find 100.  And working out which tested people are random, and which came forward because they were high risk or had symptoms would be near impossible.  It is a massive project, albeit a v necessary one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jasonb   

If you are doing testing you need to identify a sampling strategy.

Random testing might suggest testing people in the supermarket yet that might be misleading as they are the healthier ones with the ill ones back home.

Then you might decide to test a street and all the occupants or using a stratified testing method say every tenth house, that might be better than the first point yet there is another to consider and that is what is the likely infection rate for people living in flats. 

Sampling strategies to understand the likely true situation need some thought.

 

A point of interest, in the last couple of years over 1,400 people died in England & Wales daily yet flu is not listed as a cause.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now