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King Kante

Premier League Run In - 2020/21

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So, things are start to take shape with the run in for the CL spots for next season. Utd and City have both got themselves into positions where they are secured CL qualification and most likely the top 2 spots. That leaves 6 teams fighting it out for fourth. Here are the run ins: 

Leicester - 56pts

WBA (H) 

Palace (H)

Soton (A)

Newcastle (H)

Utd (A)

Chelsea (A)

Spurs (H)

 

West Ham - 55pts

Newcastle (A)

Chelsea (H)

Burnley (A)

Everton (H)

Brighton (A)

West Brom (A)

Soton (H)

 

Chelsea - 54pts

Brighton (H)

West Ham (A)

Fulham (H)

City (A)

Arsenal (H)

Leicester (H)

Villa (A)

 

Dippers - 52pts 

Leeds (A)

Newcastle (H)

Utd (A)

Soton (H)

WBA (A)

Burnley (A)

Palace (H)

 

Spuds - 49pts

Everton (A)

Soton (H)

Sheff Utd (H)

Leeds (A)

Wolves (H)

Villa (A)

Leicester (H)

 

Everton - 48pts (game in hand)

Spuds (H)

Arsenal (A)

Villa (H)

West Ham (A)

Sheff Utd (H)

Wolves (A)

City (A)

Looking at the run in West Ham, Dippers and Spuds have the easiest run ins and all three also don't have any additional cup games bar a League Cup final for Spuds. 

Everton probably have the hardest, I think if they draw or lose to Spuds then it could be game over for them by the next round. Ours and Leicester's run in is pretty similar, although they have a nice run of games in the next four. 

At this moment, I cannot pick who is going to finish where, but if I were going to bet I reckon the Dippers and West Ham will end up with around 71pts and Leicester 72pts. If West Ham avoid defeat to us, then add at least one more point to them.

As for us, I feel we actually have a bit of a job on. Looking at the other fixtures, I would say that we are going to have to most certainly have to beat Brighton and West Ham, then at worst get a minimum of 11pts from the final 15. That would give us 71pts. Cannot see us getting in with less and even then it would require GD. As for those fixtures I am predicting the following: 

Leicester - 72pts

West Ham - 71pts (if they lose to us)

Liverpool - 71pts

Spuds - 68pts

Everton 62pts (plus what they get from their game in hand.)

On a side note, WBA are also going to be fairly influential. They play three of the teams. Going to need them to really put in more performances like their last two. However, I currently have them losing all of those games. 

 

Edited by King Kante

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Jasonb   

It's good WBA followed up on their win over us with another, gives them a bit of hope and they have still to play two of our competitors. Just having them win a couple makes the Burnleys and Newcastles just a bit more likley to fight for a result.

I think we will get fourth.

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We're certainly in with a shout for top 4, but we've probably got the hardest run-in. As for relegation, the bottom 3 teams ATM will go down.  Sheff U are a p*** poor side, massively over achieved last time out, and didn't back their manager when he needed it.  WBA, I won't shed any tears about their demise either, nothing against the football club, but Slaven Bilic was harshly sacked after a draw at Man City and replaced the odious, hippo-faced dinosaur that iis Sam Allardyce.  If any manager deserves a relegation on his CV, he does.  And Fulham were doomed from the word go, their best players this season have been RLC and Lookman, players who aren't even theirs.  The likes of Mitrovic, Bryan, Cainey and more than a few others are simply not good enough to play in the Premier League.

Edited by blueandproud

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Keen to be wrong, but I can't see us getting top 4 now. We have 2 CL semis (and the FA Cup of course) to play, which are a huge distraction. Historically, it feels very much like either the league form, or the cup form suffers somewhere along the way, around those CL semis. Liverpool have nothing else to play for. I think it will be City, Utd, Leicester, Liverpool. We have made huge improvements since Tuchel came in, but I still think we are going to end up wishing he arrived a month earlier.

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asvaberg   
20 minutes ago, McCreadie said:

Keen to be wrong, but I can't see us getting top 4 now. We have 2 CL semis (and the FA Cup of course) to play, which are a huge distraction. Historically, it feels very much like either the league form, or the cup form suffers somewhere along the way, around those CL semis. Liverpool have nothing else to play for. I think it will be City, Utd, Leicester, Liverpool. We have made huge improvements since Tuchel came in, but I still think we are going to end up wishing he arrived a month earlier.

Or, the optimistic way of seeing things :)

We can lose to Man City away, win the rest, and still make it - total points 72, 4th place

West Ham lose away to us, win the rest = total points 73, 3rd place

If:

Leicester lose away to ManUtd (and us), win the rest = total points 71

Liverpool lose away to ManUtd , win the rest =  total points 70

Spurs can in theory end on 70 points, maximum, and Everton 72 (69 if lose to West Ham) and their form is pretty bad and goal difference is terrible

We only have to rely on ourselves and OGS/ManUtd.......... haha :)

 

 

Edited by asvaberg

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Ham   
1 hour ago, McCreadie said:

Keen to be wrong, but I can't see us getting top 4 now. We have 2 CL semis (and the FA Cup of course) to play, which are a huge distraction. Historically, it feels very much like either the league form, or the cup form suffers somewhere along the way, around those CL semis. Liverpool have nothing else to play for. I think it will be City, Utd, Leicester, Liverpool. We have made huge improvements since Tuchel came in, but I still think we are going to end up wishing he arrived a month earlier.

 

1 hour ago, asvaberg said:

Or, the optimistic way of seeing things :)

We can lose to Man City away, win the rest, and still make it - total points 72, 4th place

West Ham lose away to us, win the rest = total points 73, 3rd place

If:

Leicester lose away to ManUtd (and us), win the rest = total points 71

Liverpool lose away to ManUtd , win the rest =  total points 70

Spurs can in theory end on 70 points, maximum, and Everton 72 (69 if lose to West Ham) and their form is pretty bad and goal difference is terrible

We only have to rely on ourselves and OGS/ManUtd.......... haha :)

 

 

Can I have the Asvaberg option please?

Thank you.  

Edited by Ham
Grammar

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2 hours ago, McCreadie said:

Keen to be wrong, but I can't see us getting top 4 now. We have 2 CL semis (and the FA Cup of course) to play, which are a huge distraction. Historically, it feels very much like either the league form, or the cup form suffers somewhere along the way, around those CL semis. Liverpool have nothing else to play for. I think it will be City, Utd, Leicester, Liverpool. We have made huge improvements since Tuchel came in, but I still think we are going to end up wishing he arrived a month earlier.

I do kind of agree with this sadly but I think that the FA Cup game comes first may be an advantage as we dont play a league game before it that might distract us. The games either side of the Champions league are the key ones I think, so West Ham away which was a key fixture anyway and Fulham at home (discounting City away as I think we would lose anyway). You can also add Arsenal and Leicester home games is we get to the fac cup final.

I'm hoping that Kovavic injury isn't that serious as I do think the ability to mix and match in the middle there has been a benefit and you fear that Kante is never far from an knock that puts him out.

I think we do have our work cut out, I think that now that Liverpools only focus is top 4 they will probably get it ahead of us and that Leicester or west Ham get the other place. Personally would take getting to another Champs league final over qualifying for next year anyway.

 

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2 minutes ago, fillerywhereru said:

Personally would take getting to another Champs league final over qualifying for next year anyway.

 

I would take winning it..

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2 hours ago, asvaberg said:

Or, the optimistic way of seeing things :)

We can lose to Man City away, win the rest, and still make it - total points 72, 4th place

West Ham lose away to us, win the rest = total points 73, 3rd place

If:

Leicester lose away to ManUtd (and us), win the rest = total points 71

Liverpool lose away to ManUtd , win the rest =  total points 70

Spurs can in theory end on 70 points, maximum, and Everton 72 (69 if lose to West Ham) and their form is pretty bad and goal difference is terrible

We only have to rely on ourselves and OGS/ManUtd.......... haha :)

 

 

Your optimistic version is certainly nicer to look at than mine! The only given, is that all teams will drop unexpected points.

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